Coffee prices fell further during the month of September, with the ICO composite indicator price at 126.69 US cents per lb compared to 131.14 cents in August . The average of the ICO composite indicator price for coffee year 2007/08 was 126.67 US cents per lb. The first days of October witnessed a sharp drop in prices, as the ICO composite indicator price fell below 110 US cents per lb, representing a 17.7% decrease compared to the level at the beginning of September. The crisis in the global financial markets is having a direct effect on commodities in general, including coffee, despite the fact that the coffee supply and demand fundamentals remain unchanged.
The US dollar has continued to strengthen in relation to the currencies of many exporting countries while commodity prices in general are falling. The current crisis in the financial markets appears to be having further repercussions on the coffee market, especially in view of the credit restrictions and lack of liquidity affecting major trade operators. Credit restrictions also affect producers, who are likely to be forced to reduce their expenditures on investment and maintenance, with a possible reduction in the supply of coffee in the medium term. Inflation levels are also going up in exporting and importing countries
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. In the absence of any new information, I am maintaining my estimate of world production in crop year 2008/09 at around 131 million bags.
Exports by all exporting countries during August totalled 7.4 million bags, compared to 8.1 million bags in July. Exports during the first eleven months of coffee year 2007/08 (October 2007 –August 2008) fell by 4.5%, to 86.6 million bags compared with 90.7 million bags for the same period in coffee year 2006/07.
Lastly it should be noted that at the 101st Session of the International Coffee Council held from 22 to 26 September 2008, a new time limit of 25 September 2009 for the signature and deposit of instruments of ratification, acceptance or approval of the International Coffee Agreement 2007. This new time limit should allow sufficient time for Governments to complete their procedures for membership of the Organization.